Friday College Football Preview

SECond to None

After last week's lousy slate of college football games the football gods have served up a nice offering this week as conference play kicks into high gear with 3 match-ups pitting top 25 teams against each other. Does anyone else agree that rankings should just be thrown out until after week 5? Each week we have to watch Lou Holtz poop his pants in studio because another "ranked" team gets blown out. Maybe this is because rankings in college football are about as arbitrary and fleeting as Teen Choice Awards...ask the Hanson Brothers how that worked out for them.

Anyhow we have to play the cards we are dealt and right now that consists of a weekly onslaught of crappy inaccurate rankings which fuel an even more fucked up BCS Championship system that will likely give us a national championship match-up the likes of the juggernaut Houston Cougars and the perennial fly in the ointment Boise State Broncos. I'll hold off on opening the BCS pandora's box for now and stick to this weekends games. Here are my picks, look over them while you ponder why no one is mentioning how good Texas has looked this year.

USC @ California (+4.5)

There's an old gambling adage in football that says only a fool bets on a game with a 4-point line. There is something about this crazy number that represents that gamblers have no idea what is going to happen. Usually it's the exact opposite of what common sense would tell you but it is nearly impossible to swallow your pride and go with that mindset so Vegas cleans up on these games annually. Our three big match-ups this week contain two games which have been hovering around a 4-point spread all week. What better time to put this theory to the test than in week 5 when we have no idea what the hell is going on in college football?

USC is undefeated with Matt Barkley under center but they have looked less than impressive in all of their games and California is coming off of an ass-whooping in Oregon (42-3), which put to rest any dreams they may have had of a national title. In all likelihood this game will decide who the Pac-10 favorite will be from here on out. While USC has more talent from top to bottom USC has played like dirt on the road this year, losing to Washington and squeaking out a victory against an Ohio State team that essentially gave the game away. Cal, on the other hand, has outscored their opponents 111-20 this year at home (granted those were against two bad teams). For me picking this game wasn't a matter of which team I liked better, rather which team I disliked less. I'll take Cal riding Javid Best heavily to a redemption game in Berkeley and count on Matt Barkely to finally blow a game and remind us why Pete Carrol acted like a jealous school boy bitch when Mark Sanchez declared for the NFL last spring. Confidence level: medium.

Oklahoma (-7) @ Miami

As much as I'd like to pick the boys from the U they embarrassed themselves last week in Blacksburg in a sloppy bad-weather game quieting the throngs of fair-weather fans who were ready to jump on the bandwagon and declare that the U was back. While I still believe Miami is the real deal their early season schedule has been beyond brutal (vs. Fla. St, @GT, @VT, vs. OK). It seems Florida State isn't quite as good as everyone believed at the beginning of the year leaving the Georgia Tech game as the biggest win of the year so far. While Miami will be in friendly confines this week and facing a back-up QB, I still think they are one year away from a return to glory. Oklahoma on the other hand has righted the ship after losing a stunner to BYU, and their starting QB in week one, not allowing a point against them in the last two weeks. OU will not shut out the Canes but they should be the toughest D Jacory Harris has faced yet in his young career and should have enough offensive firepower to cover the spread. I see OU winning this game easily setting up for a huge Red River Shootout in two weeks. Miami on the other hand should win out after this week to finish the season at 10-2 and may even have their shot at an ACC title this year if Virginia Tech stumbles along the way. Confidence level: high.

LSU (+4) @ Georgia

Ahhh the SEC. Finally a daytime showdown between two SEC powerhouses with far-reaching implications. It doesn't get much better. Both teams will be limping into this battle between the hedges coming in off of the narrowest of victories against inferior opponents. Georgia is likely salivating at the prospect of going up against an LSU defense that has allowed opponents to air it out at will throughout the year. The Bulldogs boast the best WR in the SEC in AJ Green (stat-wise, second to Julio Jones IMO), and Joe Cox will look to find him early and often. Georgia would love to make this game a shootout as they did last year in Death Valley trouncing the Tigers but Joe Cox is not Matthew Stafford and the Bulldogs no longer have a little guy named Knowshown Moreno in the backfield forcing teams to load up the box to stop the run. Georgia will get their points but in no way should this game be a shootout.

LSU's offense has looked pedestrian this year and a pre-season Heisman candidate, Charles Scott, isn't even the leading rusher on his own team. At QB, LSU may still be feeling the effects of the Ryan Perrilloux saga forcing Jordan Jefferson into a job two years ahead of schedule. Jefferson has been anything but explosive this season but one thing he has done, and will need to continue Saturday if the Tigers hope to win, is protect the football (1 int in 101 attempts).

The Tigers biggest opponent may be themselves. With the Florida game looming next week and Tebow just getting out of the hospital it is hard to imagine that LSU isn't licking their chops at the prospect of going up against the defending national champs without Jesus Christ...I mean Tim Tebow under center. LSU must avoid that kind of mentality or it's going to be a long week with a lot less fervor when they host Florida next week. The Tigers need look no further than what happened to California last week for motivation. Cal went into Oregon with this week's USC game on their mind and walked out with 42-3 smack-down at the hands of an "underdog" Oregon Duck squad.

All things considered Georgia should win this game and then become the Tigers #1 fans next week and hope they knock off Florida to give Georgia a clear path to the SEC Championship game. All the Tiger fans I've spoken to seem to have no faith in this team and are convinced that Georgia is going to exploit all of the Tigers weaknesses in a way Mississippi State began to last week. Like I said before, when everyone thinks they have a game figured out they are usually wrong. I'll go with my heart and not my mind on this one and take the Tigers to win by two on a last-second FG in a low-scoring, hard-hitting SEC game, setting up the game of the year next week versus the Gators. Confidence level: low.


Other leanings:

ATS:

South Florida (-6.5) @ Syracuse
Wisconsin (+3) @ Minnesota
Clemson (-12.5) @ UMD
UVA @ UNC (-13)
Ole Miss @ Vandy (+10)
Tulane @ Army (-6)
Washington (+12.5) @ Notre Dame
Air Force @ Navy (-2.5)
Georgia Tech (-5) @ Miss. St.
PSU (-7) @ Illinois
New Mexico @ Texas Tech (-34)
Auburn (+2.5) @ Tennessee
Houston (-14) @ UTEP
Wyoming (+3.5) @ Florida Atlantic

Home field advantage is over-rated.

Over/Under:

Michigan @ MSU Over 54
UCLA @ Stanford Over 46
FIU @ LA Monroe Over 55.5
Boise St. @ WHOEVER Over 55.5
Washington @ Notre Dame Over 53.5

Ohio St. @ Indiana Under 49
SMU @ TCU Under 52
Ark. St @ Iowa Under 45
Cincy @ Miami-Ohio Under 59
LSU @ UGA Under 51
Tulsa @ Rice Under 62.5


YTD ATS: 6-7
YTD O/U: 5-3

And for your moment of Zen, here is what it feels like to be a Redskins fan these days: click me.

Boring Saturday Preview

"Women do not exist, only football...college football" - Tebow

When ESPN Gameday is at the Iowa-Penn State football game you know it's going to a pretty awful Saturday of college football. Thus God invented gambling to make otherwise meaningless games reduce men to tears and force them to pawn their wives jewelery and Western Union their children's college funds to tropical Islands they will never visit.

In my imaginary world I walk around making million dollar picks like I'm Gordon Gekko giving stock tips. In reality I clench my butt-cheeks together at the prospect of wagering anything more than lunch money. Which is probably good because gambling is illegal and I would never condone it on such a prestigious website. Additionally, I believe even the best gamblers are lucky to break even when all is said and done but that won't stop me from throwing my hat in the ring every now and then. I'm no expert but I figured a good way to keep me dedicated to updating this site and from throwing away money I don't have, on games I will inevitably skew the outcomes of was of, is to preview the big games each week and throw some of my favorite picks out there.

With only one matchup this week involving two ranked teams there is no better place to start than Blacksburg, VA.

Miami (-2.5) @ VT

Is the U really back? That question will be answered this week as Miami takes their 2-0 conference record to Blacksburg for what is sure to be a hard-hitting game between two former Big East foes. Usually I would have a hard time ever picking against VT as an underdog in Lane Stadium but for some reason this game is taking place at 3:30PM EST. Lane stadium turns into an absolute jungle when the sun goes down but this game will be played before the sun goes down. The real ex-factor in this game may be the weather. It looks like it's going to be about 50* and raining at kickoff which could neutralize any speed advantage Miami looked to have and would certainly benefit a run-first VT team on their home turf. With that said Jacory Harris has looked like the real deal in two tough games already and the weather is never an excuse for any good team. I'll take the young and talented Hurricanes in a sloppy game that will probably have to be won by their defense. Confidence level: low.

Iowa (+10) @ Penn State

Sadly this may be the only other game of the day worth expounding on. The Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Happy Valley to take on an undefeated #4 ranked Nittany Lion team out for revenge after having their BCS dreams dashed last year by an Iowa team that returns 16 starters. This will be a "Whiteout" for Penn State, this is when all the students wear white shirts to the game to frighten the away team into submission. With this sort of "insanity" I guess they shouldn't even bother playing the game. I can't imagine anything quite as scary as a bunch of future accountants gathered in such a public display of unity. How will Iowa possibly be able to execute their gameplan in the whitest place in America this side of Utah. Unfortunately for the fans none of them will actually be taking the field and their team will have to do their bidding. Penn State has faced a grand total of zero noteworthy teams to this point in the year so it is hard to tell how good they really are. Iowa has also played pretty much no one mentionable and their games have actually been close. I'll take the team that has actually been contested this year for both teams first solid match-up. Just like Miami game I would not be the least bit surprised to see this game go the opposite of my pick. If Penn State jumps out early there is a good chance Iowa will fold but I haven't been impressed with PSU's defense this year and their LBs are banged up. Look for Penn State to win a close one, but Adam Robinson will take over where Shonn Greene left off and keep Iowa close enough to cover. Confidence level: medium.

Now that you've seen me publicly embarrass myself with two terrible picks I'll leave you gamblers with a list of my other leanings for Saturday's slate of games.

Against The Spread

LSU @ Miss St. (+13)
UNC @ GT (-3)
Ark (+17.5) @ Bama
Cal (-5.5) @ Oregon
ASU (+12) @ Georgia
Vandy (-7) @ Rice
Marshall @ Memphis (-3)
Wake (-2.5) @ BC
Ball St. @ Auburn (-33.5)
Rutgers @ MD (+1)
ND @ Purdue (+6)

Over/Unders

Toledo @ FIU (Over 59)
Boise St. @ Bowling Green (Over 51.5)
Indiana @ Michigan (Over 53.5)
Cal @ Oregon (Over 55.5)

Fresno St. @ Cincy (Under 63.5)
ULL @ Nebraska (Under 54)
Illinois @ Ohio St. (Under 49.5)
ND @ Purdue (Under 59.5)

I figure if I use this to keep track of my record I will see how much money I would lose if I actually had any....public shame is a hell of a tool...come to think of it this may be the first and last college football preview. FML.

Record: 0-0