Friday College Football Preview

SECond to None

After last week's lousy slate of college football games the football gods have served up a nice offering this week as conference play kicks into high gear with 3 match-ups pitting top 25 teams against each other. Does anyone else agree that rankings should just be thrown out until after week 5? Each week we have to watch Lou Holtz poop his pants in studio because another "ranked" team gets blown out. Maybe this is because rankings in college football are about as arbitrary and fleeting as Teen Choice Awards...ask the Hanson Brothers how that worked out for them.

Anyhow we have to play the cards we are dealt and right now that consists of a weekly onslaught of crappy inaccurate rankings which fuel an even more fucked up BCS Championship system that will likely give us a national championship match-up the likes of the juggernaut Houston Cougars and the perennial fly in the ointment Boise State Broncos. I'll hold off on opening the BCS pandora's box for now and stick to this weekends games. Here are my picks, look over them while you ponder why no one is mentioning how good Texas has looked this year.

USC @ California (+4.5)

There's an old gambling adage in football that says only a fool bets on a game with a 4-point line. There is something about this crazy number that represents that gamblers have no idea what is going to happen. Usually it's the exact opposite of what common sense would tell you but it is nearly impossible to swallow your pride and go with that mindset so Vegas cleans up on these games annually. Our three big match-ups this week contain two games which have been hovering around a 4-point spread all week. What better time to put this theory to the test than in week 5 when we have no idea what the hell is going on in college football?

USC is undefeated with Matt Barkley under center but they have looked less than impressive in all of their games and California is coming off of an ass-whooping in Oregon (42-3), which put to rest any dreams they may have had of a national title. In all likelihood this game will decide who the Pac-10 favorite will be from here on out. While USC has more talent from top to bottom USC has played like dirt on the road this year, losing to Washington and squeaking out a victory against an Ohio State team that essentially gave the game away. Cal, on the other hand, has outscored their opponents 111-20 this year at home (granted those were against two bad teams). For me picking this game wasn't a matter of which team I liked better, rather which team I disliked less. I'll take Cal riding Javid Best heavily to a redemption game in Berkeley and count on Matt Barkely to finally blow a game and remind us why Pete Carrol acted like a jealous school boy bitch when Mark Sanchez declared for the NFL last spring. Confidence level: medium.

Oklahoma (-7) @ Miami

As much as I'd like to pick the boys from the U they embarrassed themselves last week in Blacksburg in a sloppy bad-weather game quieting the throngs of fair-weather fans who were ready to jump on the bandwagon and declare that the U was back. While I still believe Miami is the real deal their early season schedule has been beyond brutal (vs. Fla. St, @GT, @VT, vs. OK). It seems Florida State isn't quite as good as everyone believed at the beginning of the year leaving the Georgia Tech game as the biggest win of the year so far. While Miami will be in friendly confines this week and facing a back-up QB, I still think they are one year away from a return to glory. Oklahoma on the other hand has righted the ship after losing a stunner to BYU, and their starting QB in week one, not allowing a point against them in the last two weeks. OU will not shut out the Canes but they should be the toughest D Jacory Harris has faced yet in his young career and should have enough offensive firepower to cover the spread. I see OU winning this game easily setting up for a huge Red River Shootout in two weeks. Miami on the other hand should win out after this week to finish the season at 10-2 and may even have their shot at an ACC title this year if Virginia Tech stumbles along the way. Confidence level: high.

LSU (+4) @ Georgia

Ahhh the SEC. Finally a daytime showdown between two SEC powerhouses with far-reaching implications. It doesn't get much better. Both teams will be limping into this battle between the hedges coming in off of the narrowest of victories against inferior opponents. Georgia is likely salivating at the prospect of going up against an LSU defense that has allowed opponents to air it out at will throughout the year. The Bulldogs boast the best WR in the SEC in AJ Green (stat-wise, second to Julio Jones IMO), and Joe Cox will look to find him early and often. Georgia would love to make this game a shootout as they did last year in Death Valley trouncing the Tigers but Joe Cox is not Matthew Stafford and the Bulldogs no longer have a little guy named Knowshown Moreno in the backfield forcing teams to load up the box to stop the run. Georgia will get their points but in no way should this game be a shootout.

LSU's offense has looked pedestrian this year and a pre-season Heisman candidate, Charles Scott, isn't even the leading rusher on his own team. At QB, LSU may still be feeling the effects of the Ryan Perrilloux saga forcing Jordan Jefferson into a job two years ahead of schedule. Jefferson has been anything but explosive this season but one thing he has done, and will need to continue Saturday if the Tigers hope to win, is protect the football (1 int in 101 attempts).

The Tigers biggest opponent may be themselves. With the Florida game looming next week and Tebow just getting out of the hospital it is hard to imagine that LSU isn't licking their chops at the prospect of going up against the defending national champs without Jesus Christ...I mean Tim Tebow under center. LSU must avoid that kind of mentality or it's going to be a long week with a lot less fervor when they host Florida next week. The Tigers need look no further than what happened to California last week for motivation. Cal went into Oregon with this week's USC game on their mind and walked out with 42-3 smack-down at the hands of an "underdog" Oregon Duck squad.

All things considered Georgia should win this game and then become the Tigers #1 fans next week and hope they knock off Florida to give Georgia a clear path to the SEC Championship game. All the Tiger fans I've spoken to seem to have no faith in this team and are convinced that Georgia is going to exploit all of the Tigers weaknesses in a way Mississippi State began to last week. Like I said before, when everyone thinks they have a game figured out they are usually wrong. I'll go with my heart and not my mind on this one and take the Tigers to win by two on a last-second FG in a low-scoring, hard-hitting SEC game, setting up the game of the year next week versus the Gators. Confidence level: low.


Other leanings:

ATS:

South Florida (-6.5) @ Syracuse
Wisconsin (+3) @ Minnesota
Clemson (-12.5) @ UMD
UVA @ UNC (-13)
Ole Miss @ Vandy (+10)
Tulane @ Army (-6)
Washington (+12.5) @ Notre Dame
Air Force @ Navy (-2.5)
Georgia Tech (-5) @ Miss. St.
PSU (-7) @ Illinois
New Mexico @ Texas Tech (-34)
Auburn (+2.5) @ Tennessee
Houston (-14) @ UTEP
Wyoming (+3.5) @ Florida Atlantic

Home field advantage is over-rated.

Over/Under:

Michigan @ MSU Over 54
UCLA @ Stanford Over 46
FIU @ LA Monroe Over 55.5
Boise St. @ WHOEVER Over 55.5
Washington @ Notre Dame Over 53.5

Ohio St. @ Indiana Under 49
SMU @ TCU Under 52
Ark. St @ Iowa Under 45
Cincy @ Miami-Ohio Under 59
LSU @ UGA Under 51
Tulsa @ Rice Under 62.5


YTD ATS: 6-7
YTD O/U: 5-3

And for your moment of Zen, here is what it feels like to be a Redskins fan these days: click me.